A deep-dive into how the Russian-Ukrainian war will affect South Africa’s economy and how it might act as a boon giving the already-battered country sustained tailwinds
Analysis
Why a deep dive into Putin’s actions betray one thing and one thing alone – his desire to re-assert Russian influence over Eastern Europe and beyond
An edited version of this article appeared in the Opinions and Analysis section of Business Day (South Africa) on 23/12/2021: https://www.businesslive.co.za/bd/opinion/2021-12-23-george-philipas-infrastructure-spending-in-africa-is-at-a-crossroads/
The pandemic has certainly not been kind to investment prospects in Africa. Lead by a slowdown in infrastructure investment from China, foreign direct investment (FDI), already heading south before the onset of the pandemic, fell by 18% in 2020. More ominously, greenfield investment, investment in new projects, fell precipitously by 63% according to the Global Investment Trends Monitor released by UNCTAD in Jan 2021, the largest regional fall on the globe last year. The proverbial onslaught culminated with the announcement earlier this month at the recent Forum of China-Africa Cooperation conference (FOCAC) in Dakar, Senegal that plots Sino-African relations for the next three years, of a vertical drop in investment from China from US$ 60 billion to US$40 billion.
A look at South African companies’ prospects on the continent, their past successes and failures and how this bodes in the immediate future in light of the recently-implemented AfCFTA.
The Business Day (South Africa) article includes insightful comment from Ken Gichinga, chief economist at Mentoria Economics based in Nairobi and Simon Newton Smith, Commercial Executive…
Why the stay-at-home rate amongst the 20-34 year old age group may be the missing link in explaining the record number of job vacancies and labour shortages in the developed world – especially in Anglo-Saxon countries. And the long-run consequences could be dire:
Both in economic terms – Labour shortages may be far more…
The African Continental Free Trade Area Agreement (AfCFTA) should be the catalyst for a much-needed overhaul of South Africa’s foreign policy on the continent. Underfunded for too long, overstretched and ideologically shackled to the guilt of its apartheid past, it is time for a more pragmatic approach. The country’s future depends on it.
The spotlight on inflation, and whether or not it is just a passing phase as economies re-open, is missing the bigger picture.
Long-term changes to “just-in-time” supply chains that were already underway before the pandemic and super-charged by it will ultimately lead to persistently higher inflation in advanced economies.
And especially if…
While all eyes are focused on inflation, the real underlying problem is the total debt – both public and private combined – that advanced economies have accumulated since 1945 and has gone into overdrive since the GFC in 2008.
While many commentators are raising their proverbial arms in the air and decrying the intractability of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, the current violence may have exposed a path to an end game – for better or for worse – between the two sides.
As familiar as the eternal and depressing rocket exchange between Hamas and the IDF is, causing predictable and well-trodden consequences and damage, it seems that this this time the confrontation feels different in scope.
What it means to be “English” for many second-gen immigrants ime myself was broken by Brexit. It is this very social contract though that will have to be renewed and put on steroids if the version of Brexit the Tory Government wants is to become a reality.