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When it comes to climate change, it won’t be the weather that dooms us.  But an economic and geopolitical downward spiral.  One that is already well underway. And as it stands, tech will not save us.
“Policy discussions continue to centre on inflation, conveying confidence that anticipated monetary easing will heal the world’s economic woes. Meanwhile, the pressing challenges of trade disruptions, climate change, low growth, underinvestment and inequalities are growing more serious.” UNCTAD – Trade and Development Update Report April 2024 In and amongst the hubris of recent times, punctuated…
April 29, 20240Comments
Africa African Politics: Kenya Articles Debt IMF IMF Inflation interest rates Journalism kalenjin Kenya kikuyu luo Manufacturing Raila Odinga Russia tax VAT William Ruto world bank
One year on from the Kenyan Election: I was wrong…  President William Ruto has done a solid job in a bad situation while Raila Odinga’s actions have betrayed the sort of president he would have made.
A deep-dive into President Ruto’s first year in office following his election in August 2022 Kenyan presidential and parliamentary elections. Focus on President Ruto’s economic record and foreign policy scorecard.
July 27, 20230Comments
Articles Blog China Debt globalisation housing Inflation interest rates supply side Trade USA
Stagflation, a looming credit crunch and debt crisis: Why inflation and interest rates will stay mostly high this decade and run the very real risk of fomenting the biggest debt crisis in the modern era
A comprehensive analysis of why inflation might remain high over the coming decade – even if there is a lull ih the second half of 2023 – and how high interest rates might take swathes of the global economy and public finances over the edge of a debt ticking time bomb that has been slowly…
July 16, 20230Comments
Africa Debt Economy Journalism Podcast Podcasts Video
A conversation with Shuaibu Idris, a development economist from Nigeria, about the future of infrastructure spending in Africa
On the 16th December 2021, I had a fascinating chat with Shuaibu Idris, a Nigerian development economist and MD of Time-Line Consult, a Lagos-based financial consultancy and management firm, about the state of infrastructure spending and general investment levels on the continent for an article for the weekday South African media outlet, Business Day.
December 31, 20210Comments
Articles Debt Economy Inflation Labour
The labour shortage conundrum: What economists are missing in their hunt to explain the record number of job vacancies
Why the stay-at-home rate amongst the 20-34 year old age group may be the missing link in explaining the record number of job vacancies and labour shortages in the developed world – especially in Anglo-Saxon countries.   And the long-run consequences could be dire:  Both in economic terms – Labour shortages may be far more…
October 14, 20210Comments
Debt Economy Kenya Published South Africa
Smart Cities in Africa. The Smart Move or another White Elephant that brings crushing debt

A shorter version of this article appeared in Business Day, South Africa on 23rd March 2020

https://www.businesslive.co.za/bd/opinion/2020-03-23-sas-smart-city-drive-may-not-be-such-a-clever-move/

Last month President Ramaphosa in his SONA heralded the forthcoming construction of a new 5G-ready smart city around Lanseria Airport in the next decade.  With it, South Africa was belatedly thrust to the front of a Continent-wide rush to establish so-called smart and eco-friendly cities, seen as a means of jump-starting the so-called Fourth Industrial Revolution powered by digital technology.

March 24, 20200Comments