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South Africa’s Foreign Policy is failing its people Part 1
South Africa seems to have turned a corner recently, with cautious optimism replacing portends of a failed state in recent months. But when it comes to its foreign policy, it appears to be on the same well-trodden path. In particular, if the country doesn’t take action soon to support the AfCFTA –…
October 8, 20240Comments
Analysis Articles capital Climate Change Debt Economic Economy geoeconomic fragmentation Labour Manufacturing Opinion Pieces productivity United Kingdom USA
When it comes to climate change, it won’t be the weather that dooms us.  But an economic and geopolitical downward spiral.  One that is already well underway. And as it stands, tech will not save us.
“Policy discussions continue to centre on inflation, conveying confidence that anticipated monetary easing will heal the world’s economic woes. Meanwhile, the pressing challenges of trade disruptions, climate change, low growth, underinvestment and inequalities are growing more serious.” UNCTAD – Trade and Development Update Report April 2024 In and amongst the hubris of recent times, punctuated…
April 29, 20240Comments
agriculture Analysis Articles Economic el nino Energy Inflation interest rates Opinion Pieces Panama Sectors of the economy supply side United Kingdom USA
Inflation is coming down nicely… but will it last?
A look at why inflation may not have been tamed in the coming months as is now widely-believed, with substantial drops in food and energy prices, leading the way. The expiry of the Russia-Ukraine grain deal and most of all the unpredictable yet ominous onset of this year’s El Nino could well see prices start…
July 16, 20230Comments
Analysis Articles China Debt Economic globalisation housing Inflation interest rates Journalism Opinion Pieces supply side Trade USA
Stagflation, a looming credit crunch and debt crisis: Why inflation and interest rates will stay mostly high this decade and run the very real risk of fomenting the biggest debt crisis in the modern era
A comprehensive analysis of why inflation might remain high over the coming decade – even if there is a lull ih the second half of 2023 – and how high interest rates might take swathes of the global economy and public finances over the edge of a debt ticking time bomb that has been slowly…
July 16, 20230Comments
Analysis Articles Economic Economy Energy Journalism Opinion Pieces
Transitory or not, the Great Inflation Debate is really missing the point…

The supply-side mayhem caused by pandemic and war and that sparked a bout of global inflation for the first time in a generation; Whether transitory or not, what is certain is that it is a dry-run for the persistent and much higher inflation or even stagflation we were always likely to face later in the decade.

October 6, 20220Comments
Africa Analysis Articles Economic Economy Energy Journalism Opinion Pieces Published Trade
Infrastructure spending in Africa is at a crossroads

An edited version of this article appeared in the Opinions and Analysis section of Business Day (South Africa) on 23/12/2021: https://www.businesslive.co.za/bd/opinion/2021-12-23-george-philipas-infrastructure-spending-in-africa-is-at-a-crossroads/

The pandemic has certainly not been kind to investment prospects in Africa.  Lead by a slowdown in infrastructure investment from China, foreign direct investment (FDI), already heading south before the onset of the pandemic, fell by 18% in 2020.  More ominously, greenfield investment, investment in new projects, fell precipitously by 63% according to the Global Investment Trends Monitor released by UNCTAD in Jan 2021, the largest regional fall on the globe last year.  The proverbial onslaught culminated with the announcement earlier this month at the recent Forum of China-Africa Cooperation conference (FOCAC) in Dakar, Senegal that plots Sino-African relations for the next three years, of a vertical drop in investment from China from US$ 60 billion to US$40 billion. 

December 24, 20210Comments
Africa Analysis Articles Economic Economy Journalism Published South Africa
Failure shows SA Companies should reconsider African strategy
A look at South African companies’ prospects on the continent, their past successes and failures and how this bodes in the immediate future in light of the recently-implemented AfCFTA. The Business Day (South Africa) article includes insightful comment from Ken Gichinga, chief economist at Mentoria Economics based in Nairobi and Simon Newton Smith, Commercial Executive…
October 19, 20210Comments
Analysis Articles Debt Economic Economy Inflation Labour Opinion Pieces
The labour shortage conundrum: What economists are missing in their hunt to explain the record number of job vacancies
Why the stay-at-home rate amongst the 20-34 year old age group may be the missing link in explaining the record number of job vacancies and labour shortages in the developed world – especially in Anglo-Saxon countries.   And the long-run consequences could be dire:  Both in economic terms – Labour shortages may be far more…
October 14, 20210Comments
Africa Analysis Articles Economic Manufacturing Published South Africa Trade
SA must clean up its act in Africa – Its future depends on it
The African Continental Free Trade Area Agreement (AfCFTA) should be the catalyst for a much-needed overhaul of South Africa’s foreign policy on the continent. Underfunded for too long, overstretched and ideologically shackled to the guilt of its apartheid past, it is time for a more pragmatic approach. The country’s future depends on it.
September 2, 20210Comments