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Stagflation, a looming credit crunch and debt crisis: Why inflation and interest rates will stay mostly high this decade and run the very real risk of fomenting the biggest debt crisis in the modern era

A comprehensive analysis of why inflation might remain high over the coming decade – even if there is a lull ih the second half of 2023 – and how high interest rates might take swathes of the global economy and public finances over the edge of a debt ticking time bomb that has been slowly…

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Liberia and LISCR – The Shipping and Corporate Registry. A rich and secretive history that lays bare the double-standards of globalisation in the West

A look at the secretive Liberian Corporate and shipping registry that continues to be a tax haven, especially for the shipping industry. And alludes to the ultimate beneficiaries behind the scheme.

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Kenya’s General Election: Why, for the good of the country, Raila Odinga must win

There has been a lot of negative coverage about the forthcoming gen elections in Kenya on 9th August 2022.

The Economist's article below a few months back is typical:

https://www.economist.com/middle-east-and-africa/2022/04/02/kenyan-voters-face-an-invidious-choice-in-august

It fairly cites a lack of a viable choice and focuses on the cynicism of Kenyan politics; Where politicians change allegiances and political parties - usually one-election vehicles for whatever frontrunner is in current fashion - more often than they change their expensive imported Versace and Armani suits; Of which they can easily afford a warehouse-load on a Kenyan politician's ludicrously-inflated salary when compared to even those in the most powerful countries in the west.

Sure, the curse of tribal politics is nowhere more visible than in Kenya on the continent. A curse that always comes at the cost of actual viable social and economic policies that are almost an afterthought and hard to discern between the two current frontrunners - Raila Odinga and William Ruto:

Both candidates aspire to "bottom-up economics", whatever that actually means, and a vague promise of subsidies on fertilisers. Ultimately they both inspire nothing more than apathy in the Kenyan electorate.

But that is missing a trick.

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Transitory or not, the Great Inflation Debate is really missing the point…

The supply-side mayhem caused by pandemic and war and that sparked a bout of global inflation for the first time in a generation; Whether transitory or not, what is certain is that it is a dry-run for the persistent and much higher inflation or even stagflation we were always likely to face later in the decade.

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For its own good, SA must take the regional lead against Russia

A focus on Russian interference in the southern African region reveals it is deeper and more ingrained than many might realise. And how the underhanded tactics of disinformation and the targeting of weak undemocratic leaders might pose a problem for South Africa itself – exacerbating an already, increasingly unstable region.

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A conversation with Shuaibu Idris, a development economist from Nigeria, about the future of infrastructure spending in Africa

On the 16th December 2021, I had a fascinating chat with Shuaibu Idris, a Nigerian development economist and MD of Time-Line Consult, a Lagos-based financial consultancy and management firm, about the state of infrastructure spending and general investment levels on the continent for an article for the weekday South African media outlet, Business Day.

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