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Stagflation, a looming credit crunch and debt crisis: Why inflation and interest rates will stay mostly high this decade and run the very real risk of fomenting the biggest debt crisis in the modern era

A comprehensive analysis of why inflation might remain high over the coming decade – even if there is a lull ih the second half of 2023 – and how high interest rates might take swathes of the global economy and public finances over the edge of a debt ticking time bomb that has been slowly…

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When it comes to climate change, it won’t be the weather that dooms us.  But an economic and geopolitical downward spiral.  One that is already well underway. And as it stands, tech will not save us.

“Policy discussions continue to centre on inflation, conveying confidence that anticipated monetary easing will heal the world’s economic woes. Meanwhile, the pressing challenges of trade disruptions, climate change, low growth, underinvestment and inequalities are growing more serious.” UNCTAD – Trade and Development Update Report April 2024 In and amongst the hubris of recent times, punctuated…

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Away from the world’s gaze, the Sudanese civil war is exacerbating regional rivalries that threaten to foment a devastating wider conflict. One that the West will be helpless to prevent.

The civil war in Sudan has deepened and widened a set of interwoven alliances and rivalries that are pushing the entire region into a hot war. With serious implications for the post-1945 world order.

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Image courtesy of Alamy

The irony of an authoritarian Protestant king: The golden age of politics and economics bequeathed to us by the Protestant movement and the Glorious Revolution is coming to an end. No longer fit for purpose it must be ushered into the annals of history if we are to survive the coming decades.

Donald Trump has brought the golden age of the Protestant movement and the proliforation of liberal capitalist society full circle that was sparked by the Glorious Revolution of 1688 full circle. By trying to reimpose an outdated system through authoritarian means, he is going against the very founding principles upon which the system was…

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One year on from the Kenyan Election: I was wrong…  President William Ruto has done a solid job in a bad situation while Raila Odinga’s actions have betrayed the sort of president he would have made.

A deep-dive into President Ruto’s first year in office following his election in August 2022 Kenyan presidential and parliamentary elections. Focus on President Ruto’s economic record and foreign policy scorecard.

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Inflation is coming down nicely… but will it last?

A look at why inflation may not have been tamed in the coming months as is now widely-believed, with substantial drops in food and energy prices, leading the way. The expiry of the Russia-Ukraine grain deal and most of all the unpredictable yet ominous onset of this year’s El Nino could well see prices start…

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Liberia and LISCR – The Shipping and Corporate Registry. A rich and secretive history that lays bare the double-standards of globalisation in the West

A look at the secretive Liberian Corporate and shipping registry that continues to be a tax haven, especially for the shipping industry. And alludes to the ultimate beneficiaries behind the scheme.

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Kenya’s General Election: Why, for the good of the country, Raila Odinga must win

There has been a lot of negative coverage about the forthcoming gen elections in Kenya on 9th August 2022.

The Economist's article below a few months back is typical:

https://www.economist.com/middle-east-and-africa/2022/04/02/kenyan-voters-face-an-invidious-choice-in-august

It fairly cites a lack of a viable choice and focuses on the cynicism of Kenyan politics; Where politicians change allegiances and political parties - usually one-election vehicles for whatever frontrunner is in current fashion - more often than they change their expensive imported Versace and Armani suits; Of which they can easily afford a warehouse-load on a Kenyan politician's ludicrously-inflated salary when compared to even those in the most powerful countries in the west.

Sure, the curse of tribal politics is nowhere more visible than in Kenya on the continent. A curse that always comes at the cost of actual viable social and economic policies that are almost an afterthought and hard to discern between the two current frontrunners - Raila Odinga and William Ruto:

Both candidates aspire to "bottom-up economics", whatever that actually means, and a vague promise of subsidies on fertilisers. Ultimately they both inspire nothing more than apathy in the Kenyan electorate.

But that is missing a trick.

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