The supply-side mayhem caused by pandemic and war and that sparked a bout of global inflation for the first time in a generation; Whether transitory or not, what is certain is that it is a dry-run for the persistent and much higher inflation or even stagflation we were always likely to face later in the decade.
The spotlight on inflation, and whether or not it is just a passing phase as economies re-open, is missing the bigger picture.
Long-term changes to “just-in-time” supply chains that were already underway before the pandemic and super-charged by it will ultimately lead to persistently higher inflation in advanced economies.
And especially if…
While all eyes are focused on inflation, the real underlying problem is the total debt – both public and private combined – that advanced economies have accumulated since 1945 and has gone into overdrive since the GFC in 2008.