A deep-dive into how the Russian-Ukrainian war will affect South Africa’s economy and how it might act as a boon giving the already-battered country sustained tailwinds
Economy
On the 16th December 2021, I had a fascinating chat with Shuaibu Idris, a Nigerian development economist and MD of Time-Line Consult, a Lagos-based financial consultancy and management firm, about the state of infrastructure spending and general investment levels on the continent for an article for the weekday South African media outlet, Business Day.
An edited version of this article appeared in the Opinions and Analysis section of Business Day (South Africa) on 23/12/2021: https://www.businesslive.co.za/bd/opinion/2021-12-23-george-philipas-infrastructure-spending-in-africa-is-at-a-crossroads/
The pandemic has certainly not been kind to investment prospects in Africa. Lead by a slowdown in infrastructure investment from China, foreign direct investment (FDI), already heading south before the onset of the pandemic, fell by 18% in 2020. More ominously, greenfield investment, investment in new projects, fell precipitously by 63% according to the Global Investment Trends Monitor released by UNCTAD in Jan 2021, the largest regional fall on the globe last year. The proverbial onslaught culminated with the announcement earlier this month at the recent Forum of China-Africa Cooperation conference (FOCAC) in Dakar, Senegal that plots Sino-African relations for the next three years, of a vertical drop in investment from China from US$ 60 billion to US$40 billion.
A look at South African companies’ prospects on the continent, their past successes and failures and how this bodes in the immediate future in light of the recently-implemented AfCFTA.
The Business Day (South Africa) article includes insightful comment from Ken Gichinga, chief economist at Mentoria Economics based in Nairobi and Simon Newton Smith, Commercial Executive…
Why the stay-at-home rate amongst the 20-34 year old age group may be the missing link in explaining the record number of job vacancies and labour shortages in the developed world – especially in Anglo-Saxon countries. And the long-run consequences could be dire:
Both in economic terms – Labour shortages may be far more…
The African Continental Free Trade Area Agreement (AfCFTA) should be the catalyst for a much-needed overhaul of South Africa’s foreign policy on the continent. Underfunded for too long, overstretched and ideologically shackled to the guilt of its apartheid past, it is time for a more pragmatic approach. The country’s future depends on it.
The spotlight on inflation, and whether or not it is just a passing phase as economies re-open, is missing the bigger picture.
Long-term changes to “just-in-time” supply chains that were already underway before the pandemic and super-charged by it will ultimately lead to persistently higher inflation in advanced economies.
And especially if…
While all eyes are focused on inflation, the real underlying problem is the total debt – both public and private combined – that advanced economies have accumulated since 1945 and has gone into overdrive since the GFC in 2008.
A deep dive into the seminal work of Daniel Susskind’s book ‘A World Without Work’
A shorter version of this article appeared in Business Day, South Africa on 23rd March 2020
Last month President Ramaphosa in his SONA heralded the forthcoming construction of a new 5G-ready smart city around Lanseria Airport in the next decade. With it, South Africa was belatedly thrust to the front of a Continent-wide rush to establish so-called smart and eco-friendly cities, seen as a means of jump-starting the so-called Fourth Industrial Revolution powered by digital technology.