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Stagflation, a looming credit crunch and debt crisis: Why inflation and interest rates will stay mostly high this decade and run the very real risk of fomenting the biggest debt crisis in the modern era
A comprehensive analysis of why inflation might remain high over the coming decade – even if there is a lull ih the second half of 2023 – and how high interest rates might take swathes of the global economy and public finances over the edge of a debt ticking time bomb that has been slowly…
July 16, 20230Comments28 minRead time
Africa agriculture Articles Economy exports imports Manufacturing South Africa tariffs trade deficit
South Africa’s Foreign Policy is failing its people Part 1
South Africa seems to have turned a corner recently, with cautious optimism replacing portends of a failed state in recent months. But when it comes to its foreign policy, it appears to be on the same well-trodden path. In particular, if the country doesn’t take action soon to support the AfCFTA –…
October 8, 20240Comments27 minRead time
Africa Articles capital Debt Economy geoeconomic fragmentation IMF Journalism Labour Manufacturing productivity United Kingdom USA
When it comes to climate change, it won’t be the weather that dooms us.  But an economic and geopolitical downward spiral.  One that is already well underway. And as it stands, tech will not save us.
“Policy discussions continue to centre on inflation, conveying confidence that anticipated monetary easing will heal the world’s economic woes. Meanwhile, the pressing challenges of trade disruptions, climate change, low growth, underinvestment and inequalities are growing more serious.” UNCTAD – Trade and Development Update Report April 2024 In and amongst the hubris of recent times, punctuated…
April 29, 20240Comments32 minRead time
Africa Articles Egypt Energy Ethiopia geoeconomic fragmentation Journalism Russia Sudan
Away from the world’s gaze, the Sudanese civil war is exacerbating regional rivalries that threaten to foment a devastating wider conflict. One that the West will be helpless to prevent.
The civil war in Sudan has deepened and widened a set of interwoven alliances and rivalries that are pushing the entire region into a hot war. With serious implications for the post-1945 world order.
April 16, 20240Comments24 minRead time
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1688 Articles authoritarian automation Bank of England black america capital Catholic Catholic civil war Donald Trump Economy editorial globalisation Glorious Revolution History Journalism Labour monarchy Protestant technology United Kingdom USA
The irony of an authoritarian Protestant king: The golden age of politics and economics bequeathed to us by the Protestant movement and the Glorious Revolution is coming to an end. No longer fit for purpose it must be ushered into the annals of history if we are to survive the coming decades.
Donald Trump has brought the golden age of the Protestant movement and the proliforation of liberal capitalist society full circle that was sparked by the Glorious Revolution of 1688 full circle. By trying to reimpose an outdated system through authoritarian means, he is going against the very founding principles upon which the system was…
March 9, 20240Comments25 minRead time
Africa African Politics: Kenya Articles Debt IMF IMF Inflation interest rates Journalism kalenjin Kenya kikuyu luo Manufacturing Raila Odinga Russia tax VAT William Ruto world bank
One year on from the Kenyan Election: I was wrong…  President William Ruto has done a solid job in a bad situation while Raila Odinga’s actions have betrayed the sort of president he would have made.
A deep-dive into President Ruto’s first year in office following his election in August 2022 Kenyan presidential and parliamentary elections. Focus on President Ruto’s economic record and foreign policy scorecard.
July 27, 20230Comments25 minRead time
agriculture Articles Blog el nino Energy Inflation interest rates Sectors of the economy supply side United Kingdom USA
Inflation is coming down nicely… but will it last?
A look at why inflation may not have been tamed in the coming months as is now widely-believed, with substantial drops in food and energy prices, leading the way. The expiry of the Russia-Ukraine grain deal and most of all the unpredictable yet ominous onset of this year’s El Nino could well see prices start…
July 16, 20230Comments14 minRead time